Research, blogs and other information that have been published this week
- Local Gov. Unemployment puts hundreds of thousands more at risk of poor mental health. An extra 200,000 people are at risk of poor mental health due to unemployment, new analysis has predicted. Research by the Health Foundation shows that by the winter there will be a total of 800,000 unemployed people with poor mental health. The charity said the pandemic has highlighted an opportunity for the benefits system and employment support programmes to have a positive impact on the nation’s mental health.
- Resolution Foundation. The UK has a 6.2 million ‘Covid employment gap’ to fill. The latest data showed a labour market in deep freeze in early 2021, with employment, unemployment and total hours worked all down slightly in the three months to February. However, the number of job vacancies increased by 16 per cent between February and March, suggesting that the labour market is starting to thaw as some parts of the economy – such as non-essential retail and outdoor leisure and hospitality – reopen in April. But while the latest data hints at some green shoots of recovery, the Foundation warns that the UK faces a huge task in getting the economy back to normal – such as closing its 6.2 million ‘Covid employment gap’. This gap includes the 827,000 fall in pay rolled employment since the pandemic started (between February 2020 and March 2021), an estimated 600,000 fall in self-employment over this same period, and the 4.7 million employees who were fully or partially furloughed in March, according to separate ONS data.
- Nuffield Trust. Fractured and Forgotten. Covid-19 has highlighted many issues in the social care system in the last year, but providers of these vital services are still often ignored. This report highlights the systemic problems with the way the provider market for social care operates in England.
- HEPI. The true potential of a national student survey. As well as focusing on engagement, the survey should – as OfS has mooted – be extended to all students, rather than just finalists. There are two good reasons. Firstly, by their final year, it is too late to help those students whose response might be highlighting problems. And, secondly, there are potential biases, such as the sunk cost fallacy pulling in one direction and negativity bias (axe-grinding, in effect) pulling in the other.
- HEPI. Degree classification, grade inflation and COVID: lessons from 2019–20. Through the new report the authors want to highlight that – despite the disruption that the sector faced – the focus on flexibility and accessibility over the last year may also have contributed to the narrowing of attainment gaps between different groups of students. For this to be the case despite the issues which many students faced, and universities worked hard to overcome, is a sign of progress. Looking at student outcomes in the context of the pandemic will be crucial to ensure the right lessons are learnt for the future.
- The Guardian. Green stimulus plan could create 1.2m UK jobs in two years, research finds. A stimulus programme focused on green and digital infrastructure, research and development, energy and care work could create more than 1.2m jobs within two years and more than 2.7m jobs during the next decade, according to research. Such a strategy alongside additional government investment could mean every job lost to the coronavirus pandemic would be replaced during vital upcoming recovery years, a report by Green New Deal UK non-profit group has found.
- Tony Wilson, Director of IES on Twitter. Today's jobs stats: behind broadly flat headlines, young people AGAIN stand out as hit hardest. Déjà vu all over only a bit worse. Job changes by industry, bottom panel is last four months. The jobs growth is in pandemic jobs - health, care, test and trace/ support services. The continued losses were all in hospitality, arts
- Learning and Work Institute. Facing the Future: Employment prospects for Young People after Coronavirus. The third lockdown has had less impact on jobs than previous lockdowns, as businesses and people have adapted. As a result, the labour market is broadly stable and vacancies are almost back to pre-pandemic levels, though with significant differences by sector. The bigger picture is that unemployment could have been 2.5 million higher without the furlough scheme, given how much the economy shrank. However, a new report from the Prince’s Trust and the Learning and Work Institute warns that young people will increasingly bear the brunt of the unemployment crisis, at a growing cost to the UK economy
- Institute of Employment Studies. Labour Market Statistics April 2021. Today’s figures (20th April) tell a similar story to recent months, with both employment and unemployment broadly flat and very little sign of any significant deterioration from the third lockdown. It looks even more likely than last month that unemployment may have peaked (for now) at around 5% and we should start to see a stronger recovery in employment in the months ahead. However, today’s figures are again very poor for young people: with PAYE employment now down by 12.0% since the start of the crisis compared with 1.4% for other age groups, and PAYE employment falling again in recent months for young people even as it rises for others.
- Centre for Cities. Where in the UK is Jobs Recovery Growth Strongest? Cities and large towns in the North and Midlands have so far witnessed the strongest job posting recoveries. In nine cities and large towns — led by Barnsley, Mansfield and Stoke — there are more job postings now than before the pandemic. In contrast, cities elsewhere are lagging. Aberdeen, Belfast and Crawley are the three urban areas where job postings have recovered least. Other cities and large towns predominantly in the South East of England are also recovering slowly. London is among the cities with the weakest recovery. Job postings in the capital are still 26% below their pre-pandemic level, making it 11th from the bottom among the 63 cities.
- Resolution Foundation. After Shocks: Financial Resilience Before and During the Pandemic. This report provides some of the first evidence on how the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on households has differed across countries. It studies the living standards-related factors that contribute to financial resilience (or the lack of it) both before and during Covid-19 in the UK, France and Germany. Overall, the RF found that pre-crisis vulnerabilities were large, especially in the UK and for lower income households in Germany.